Hello Folks!
I’m Ornellius, UX Lead at Vodafone Idea.
Welcome to another episode of <beta> than ever. Previously, we explored my predictions of product design in 2025. Today, we’re diving into food consumption, the food tech boom of 2015, and the future of food quick commerce.
With the rise in the number of quick commerce food delivery platforms, I’m curious:
• Who will survive the dense cloud of discounts to stand out?
• What will be their moat if everyone only harps about 10 minute delivery?
• Will health be a factor while creating food?
• And lastly, who will win the race of fast food mountain?
First, let’s understand the playing field.
In the ever-evolving landscape of food technology, we’ve witnessed a fascinating transformation. I believe that it is driven by three key factors: time, money, and inclination. This trinity has shaped not just how we eat, but how entire business models have adapted to changing consumer behaviors.
The Food Tech Boom of 2015
The food delivery revolution that started to accelerate around 2015 wasn’t just about technology – it was about understanding and to a certain extent create a fundamental shift in consumer behavior. While supply chains were getting sophisticated and restaurants were becoming more numerous, something more subtle was happening: the relationship between people and their kitchens was changing.
The Inclination Matrix
The decision to cook or order food can be visualized through what I call the “Inclination Matrix”:
1. Expertise (Can I cook?)
2. Resources (Time + Money)
3. Interest (Do I want to cook?)
Our generation found ourselves in an interesting predicament: we have the means to purchase raw materials needed to cook but
• we lacked the culinary expertise of our parents’ generation. This expertise gap isn’t just about skill – it’s about the transfer of generational knowledge.
• we didn’t find the time to make food. Our lack of money made us take any job that we got. Our jobs had long working hours. We were left with very little time and mindspace to cook.
• Whatever time we had left, we chose to spend it with things we liked doing. For some it might be to watch a show, or listen to music, or spend time with family, the list is endless.
Prepaing food became second priority for us. This was the opportune moment that food delivery brands noticed. Back in 2015, people used to order food by calling restaurants but the number of ‘eating out days’ was once a week, sometimes even lesser. If food delivery brands had to succeed they had to change this. Starting with the orders per week, they had to go up
The Platform Evolution
To boost customer acquisition and increase repeat orders food delivery platforms like Swiggy and Zomato followed a classic platform playbook, but with their own unique twists:
1. Initial Phase: Low delivery rates, constant discounts, minimal platform fees, modest restaurant commissions
• Heavy discounting to acquire customers
• Low commissions to focus on restaurant partnerships and coverage
• Building trust through reliable delivery
2. Growth Phase: Increasing costs as market reality set in
• Introduction of subscription models (Zomato Gold, Swiggy One)
• Expansion into new verticals (grocery, meat, medicines)
• Development of cloud kitchen networks
3. Maturity Phase: Higher commissions forcing restaurants to raise prices
• Optimization of unit economics
• Focus on profitability over growth
• Consolidation of market position
The third phase is what we a starting to see now, in 2025. Have you noticed that restaurant prices have increased 2x or even 3x in some cases. It’s not just inflation, it’s the increase in commission rates by food delivery brands that has led to this subsequent rise.
Initially, these platforms primarily targeted consumers who were:
• Less interested in cooking
• Low on cooking expertise
• Had moderate disposable income
• Valued time savings
As prices of food from your ‘favourite restaurant’ across all the various food delivery apps became increasingly similar, platforms needed new differentiators that targeted more segments of the inclination matrix.
There were people who
• were interesting in cooking
• had time to cook
• lacked cooking expertise
So let’s serve them ready to cook biryani (or any other veggies) packs or lets serve them pre cut veggies and simple ready to cook masala packs.
And then there were people who
• were interested in cooking food
• had the time to cook
• had cooking experties
• BUT lacked time to shop for groceries
So let’s serve them a plethora of groceries, meat and more.
This led to the emergence of quick commerce.
Now you might say, why is this relevant now? Well what happened with the food tech industry will happen with quick commerce and quick food delivery too!
The Quick Commerce Revolution
The quick commerce revolution wasn’t just about speed – it represented a fundamental shift in how urban consumers thought about convenience. This shift manifested in several key ways:
Dark Stores and Kitchen Networks
The infrastructure behind quick commerce relies heavily on:
• Strategically located dark stores
• Optimized inventory management
• AI-driven demand prediction
• Sophisticated routing algorithms
These elements combine to make the 10-15 minute delivery promise possible, but they also create significant operational challenges. I have written a detailed blog about this. Read here.
The New Frontier: Ultra-Fast Food Delivery
The latest evolution in this space is particularly interesting: the emergence of ultra-fast food delivery services. Serving a market of people who just do not want to cook. The market is seeing intense competition with multiple players vying for dominance:
1. Bolt by Swiggy (15 mins)
• Marketplace approach
• Leveraging existing restaurant network
• Focus on popular items and bestsellers
2. Swiggy Café (10 mins)
• Operating dark kitchens
• Standardized menu across locations
• Quality control through owned operations
3. Zepto Café (10 mins)
• Dark kitchen model
• Targeting ₹1,000 crore annualized GMV by FY24-25
• Currently at ₹160 crore annualized GMV
• Integration with grocery delivery network
4. Swish (10 mins)
• Recent $2M seed funding from Accel India
• Focus on office districts
• Innovative B2B2C approach
5. Zomato (10 mins)
• Select restaurant partnerships
• Premium positioning
• Quality-focused approach
6. Bistro by Blinkit
• Dark kitchen model
• Pushing customers of Blinking to order from Bistro too
The Economics of Speed
The quick commerce model is great for people like us because we get things super quick but businesses are stating to see challenges.
1. Order Value Ceiling
• Despite growing customer base, average order values remain constrained
• Price sensitivity for convenience has clear limits
• Need for high order density to maintain profitability
2. Operational Challenges
• Managing fresh inventory
• Maintaining consistent quality
• Balancing speed with safety
• Training and retaining delivery partners
We’re ending the first phase of the platform evolution cycle. As we move into phase two, we will see costs of things to slowly go up. Platforms will increase prices, that’s why you see convenience fee, festive fee, surge etc being applied. In some cases iPhone users are paying more for goods compared to android users.
Soon, price, quicker delivery, or even unique product offering will not be a distinguishing factor in the future of food delivery. Healthy options will soon become the need of the hour.
The Health Revolution in Food Delivery
The industry’s pivot toward healthier options represents a significant shift in urban eating habits. Providing healty options and encouraging them will be a game changer. Brands need to focus on:
1. Health-Conscious Innovation
• Fresh ingredients and preparation
• Nutritional transparency
• Portion control
• Dietary preference customization
2. Impact on Office Culture
• Transformation of snacking habits
• Support for wellness initiatives
• Community building through group orders
Conclusion: The Future of Urban Eating
The real revolution isn’t just in how quickly food reaches customers, but in how these services are fundamentally changing urban eating habits and health consciousness.
As we look ahead, the potential for positive change is enormous. Quick commerce could be the catalyst that makes healthy eating as convenient as traditional fast food, transforming not just what we eat, but how we think about food in our daily lives. The future of food tech isn’t just about delivery speed – it’s about creating sustainable, healthy, and convenient solutions for our evolving urban lifestyle.
